It’s Christmas time for Home Depot. What you need to know about this pivotal sales period
Business Investor
3 min read
It’s go time for Home Depot . Jim Cramer, a gardening enthusiast himself, calls the next two weeks “Christmas” for home improvement retailers. Home Depot has launched its Memorial Day outdoor sales event through May 28. It’s a major strategic event, with steep discounts on plants and landscaping materials as well as big-ticket spring and summer items like grills and patio furniture being used to reel consumers into stores. Warm weather and seasonal trends like gardening are huge sales generators for the Club name. In fiscal year 2024, Home Depot’s indoor and outdoor garden sales brought in $20.83 billion, up 1.29% from the prior year. The combined categories account for about 13% of Home Depot’s total 2024 sales of $159.51 billion. Lumber and paint, for context, were 7.7% and 7%, respectively. Home Depot’s Q2 — the May, June, and July period — is typically its highest revenue quarter. According to FactSet’s consensus estimates, the same is expected to hold true this year. The company is expected to see second-quarter revenue grow 5.3% year-over-year to $45.48 billion. Of course, a lot can happen between now and then, given tariff uncertainty and still-elevated mortgage rates holding back turnover. So, investors will be keenly focused on forward guidance provided alongside the company’s first-quarter earnings, which are set for release before Tuesday’s opening bell. Bernstein analysts cited “unfavorable weather, weak consumer sentiment, and mixed performance from peers and suppliers” as factors playing into what they predict to be a tough first quarter at Home Depot, seasonally its weakest. The consensus calls for revenue of $39.3 billion, an 8% increase over last year, according to LSEG. Earnings per share are expected to be $3.59, which would be a modest annual decline, per LSEG. Nicer weather and stronger outdoor sales this spring and summer would certainly be welcome. But the trajectory of Home Depot stock is tied more closely to housing turnover. While the average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage hovers just under 7%, home loan demand from buyers increased for the second straight week. In another glimmer of hope, Morgan Stanley earlier this month released a survey of 131 contractors who said they were seeing demand for larger projects make a comeback. The tradesmen anticipated more growth in the latter half of the year — coinciding with the timeline for anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts. Jim has said mortgage rates need to dip below 6.5% to stimulate the housing market. HD YTD mountain Home Depot YTD Tariff impact is also an obvious concern for the Home Depot, though those headwinds could be slowly fading amid de-escalation between the U.S. and China. Stanley Black & Decker’s upgrade to a buy-equivalent rating at Barclays this week could also be a good sign. “Ultimately, we believe if the risks associated with tariffs create some near-term downside, we think that will eventually lead to a more robust recovery down the road,” said analysts at UBS in a note on Monday. Home Depot CEO Ted Decker has affirmed that the retailer would prevail no matter what happened with the situation on tariffs. “I continue to like Home Depot even though it’s contrary to what you’re seeing,” said Jim. Home Depot’s shares have dropped roughly 2.5% year to date. That compares to a nearly 1% gain for the S & P 500 , which on Tuesday turned positive in 2025 and has built on those gains over the next three sessions, including Friday. Home Depot stock is about 12% below its record-high close of just over $431 on Dec. 6. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long HD. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
A Home Depot store in Hyattsville, Maryland, on February 22, 2022.
Stefani Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images
